Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Premier League Matchday 7 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · The City Ground, Nottingham · referee M. Oliver · full time
Full time: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal
Arsenal won 1-0 away at Nottingham Forest in Premier League Matchday 7 on Sunday 18 October 2026. The goals: Noni Madueke 80'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had this exact score as the most likely.
How Arsenal won it
Arsenal struck first through Noni Madueke in the 80th minute, set up by Declan Rice.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, M. Oliver, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to Nottingham Forest and 1 to Arsenal.
Nottingham Forest: O. Glasner, 3-4-2-1 · Arsenal: M. Arteta, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Under 2.50, and 0-1 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was an Arsenal win at 55%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 0-1 (13%), exactly the final score.
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.5 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 45%; with 1 goal the under came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 46%; they did not both score, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had an Arsenal win at 57%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.33 for Nottingham Forest and 1.01 for Arsenal.
Nottingham Forest scored about 1.3 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Nottingham Forest had 2 shots on target, Arsenal 1.
Arsenal had 74% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Nottingham Forest came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 1.19 against, and had won 20% of their matches.
Arsenal came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 a match, with 1.73 expected goals for and 0.89 against, and had won 90% of their matches.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: the match in numbers
| Nottingham Forest | Match statistics | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 26% | Ball possession | 74% |
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.01 |
| 14 | Total shots | 9 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 0 | Big chances | 1 |
| 224 | Total passes | 634 |
| 71% | Pass accuracy | 90% |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 22 | Tackles | 9 |
| 0 | Saves | 2 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Declan Rice (Arsenal), rated 7.8 by Sportmonks, with 1 assist.
Nottingham Forest
- Murillo 7.4
- James McAtee 7.1
- Xaver Schlager 7.1
- Neco Williams 7.0
- Liam Delap 7.0
Arsenal
- Declan Rice 7.8 1 assist
- Gabriel 7.7
- David Raya 7.3
- Bruno Guimarães 7.3
- Ezri Konsa 7.2
The lowest-rated starter was Dan Ndoye at 6.5. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Nottingham Forest: AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
- Arsenal: Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
What was the score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal (half-time 0-0), Premier League, Sunday 18 October 2026.
Who scored in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Noni Madueke 80'.
Did Moneyball predict Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal correctly?
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Under 2.50, and 0-1 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Declan Rice, rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
M. Oliver.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.