Millwall 4-1 Derby County: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Millwall won it

The opening goal came in the 3rd minute: Kyrell Lisbie for Millwall, set up by Lyndon Dykes. Kyrell Lisbie made it 2-0 to Millwall in the 10th minute, set up by Caleb Taylor. Luke Cundle made it 3-0 to Millwall in the 17th minute, set up by Camiel Neghli. Jake Cooper made it 4-0 to Millwall in the 84th minute, set up by Mihailo Ivanović. Filip Bilbija made it 4-1 to Derby County in the 87th minute.

It was 3-0 at half-time.

Kyrell Lisbie scored twice.

The referee, A. Backhouse, showed 5 yellow cards: 3 to Millwall and 2 to Derby County.

Millwall: A. Neil, 4-2-3-1 · Derby County: J. Eustace, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A correct call on the result: 62% for a Millwall win before the match. The scoreline, 4-1, was not the estimate's first choice (2-1).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.2 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 61%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 57%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.13 for Millwall and 3.36 for Derby County.

Millwall scored about 2.9 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Derby County left about 2.4 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Derby County created the better chances, 3.36 xG to 1.13, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Millwall to create more, and Derby County did.

Millwall had 9 shots on target, Derby County 4.

Derby County's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Millwall had 56% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Millwall came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.86 expected goals for and 1.49 against, and had won 33% of their matches.

Derby County came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.11 expected goals for and 2.10 against, and had won 13% of their matches.

Millwall vs Derby County: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Luke Cundle (Millwall), rated 8.3 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Millwall

• Luke Cundle 8.3 1 goal
• Camiel Neghli 8.2 1 assist
• Kyrell Lisbie 7.9 2 goals
• Caleb Taylor 7.8 1 assist
• Zak Sturge 7.5

Derby County

• Filip Bilbija 7.2 1 goal
• Rhian Brewster 7.0
• Jacob Widell Zetterström 6.8
• Sammie Szmodics 6.7
• Carlton Morris 6.6

The lowest-rated starter was Bobby Clark at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Millwall: Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
• Derby County: Southampton vs Derby County Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Millwall vs Derby County

What was the score in Millwall vs Derby County?

Millwall 4-1 Derby County (half-time 3-0), Championship, Saturday 31 October 2026.

Who scored in Millwall vs Derby County?

Kyrell Lisbie 3', Kyrell Lisbie 10', Luke Cundle 17', Jake Cooper 84', Filip Bilbija 87'.

Did Moneyball predict Millwall vs Derby County correctly?

A correct call on the result: 62% for a Millwall win before the match. The scoreline, 4-1, was not the estimate's first choice (2-1).

Who was man of the match in Millwall vs Derby County?

Luke Cundle, rated 8.3 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Millwall vs Derby County?

A. Backhouse.