FC Midtjylland 1-6 Ajax: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Europa Conference League Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November 2026 · MCH Arena, Herning · referee P. Raczkowski · full time
Full time: FC Midtjylland 1-6 Ajax
FC Midtjylland 1-6 Ajax: Ajax took the points in Europa Conference League Matchday 3 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at MCH Arena. The goals: Tolu Arokodare 9', Friday Etim 28', Tolu Arokodare 52', Owen Wijndal 59', Davy Klaassen 67', Oscar Gloukh 74', Marcos Leonardo 82'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Ajax won it
Ajax struck first through Tolu Arokodare in the 9th minute, set up by Oscar Gloukh. FC Midtjylland levelled at 1-1 in the 28th minute through Friday Etim. Tolu Arokodare made it 1-2 to Ajax in the 52nd minute, set up by Abdellah Ouazane. Owen Wijndal made it 1-3 to Ajax in the 59th minute, set up by Tolu Arokodare. Davy Klaassen made it 1-4 to Ajax in the 67th minute, set up by Owen Wijndal. Oscar Gloukh made it 1-5 to Ajax in the 74th minute, set up by Rayane Bounida. Marcos Leonardo made it 1-6 to Ajax in the 82nd minute, set up by Oscar Gloukh.
It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Tolu Arokodare scored twice.
Kjell Wätjen of FC Midtjylland was sent off in the 43rd minute for a second yellow card. The referee, P. Raczkowski, showed 3 yellow cards: 3 to FC Midtjylland and 0 to Ajax.
FC Midtjylland: M. Tullberg, 3-4-1-2 · Ajax: M. Sánchez Muñoz, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Over 3.25, was right: 1-6 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was an Ajax win at 41%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.4 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 66%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 68%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had an Ajax win at 39%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-05, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
FC Midtjylland had 4 shots on target, Ajax 11.
Ajax had 71% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
FC Midtjylland came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.7 a match, with 1.78 expected goals for and – against, and had won 0% of their matches.
Ajax came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 3.02 expected goals for and – against, and had won 67% of their matches.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: the match in numbers
| FC Midtjylland | Match statistics | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| 29% | Ball possession | 71% |
| 10 | Total shots | 24 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 11 |
| 2 | Big chances | 8 |
| 307 | Total passes | 734 |
| 75% | Pass accuracy | 92% |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 14 | Tackles | 7 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Oscar Gloukh (Ajax), rated 9.9 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 2 assists.
FC Midtjylland
- Friday Etim 7.4 1 goal
- Denil Castillo 6.9
- Gue-sung Cho 6.7
- Victor Bak 6.5
- Philip Billing 6.4
Ajax
- Oscar Gloukh 9.9 1 goal, 2 assists
- Owen Wijndal 8.6 1 goal, 1 assist
- Tolu Arokodare 8.5 2 goals, 1 assist
- Youri Baas 7.8
- Thilo Kehrer 7.5
The lowest-rated starter was Nordin Bakker at 5.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- FC Midtjylland: Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 26 November 2026 · Europa Conference League
- Ajax: Ajax vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 22 November 2026 · Eredivisie
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about FC Midtjylland vs Ajax
What was the score in FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
FC Midtjylland 1-6 Ajax (half-time 1-1), Europa Conference League, Thursday 5 November 2026.
Who scored in FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
Tolu Arokodare 9', Friday Etim 28', Tolu Arokodare 52', Owen Wijndal 59', Davy Klaassen 67', Oscar Gloukh 74', Marcos Leonardo 82'.
Did Moneyball predict FC Midtjylland vs Ajax correctly?
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Over 3.25, was right: 1-6 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
Oscar Gloukh, rated 9.9 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
P. Raczkowski.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.