Málaga 2-5 Real Sociedad: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
La Liga Matchday 9 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga · referee L. Bestard Servera · full time
Full time: Málaga 2-5 Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad beat Málaga 5-2 in La Liga Matchday 9 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Estadio La Rosaleda. The goals: Takefusa Kubo 3', Orri Óskarsson 26', Adrián Niño Heredia 54', Mikel Oyarzabal 59', Pablo Martínez 66', Mikel Oyarzabal 67', Gonçalo Guedes 73'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Real Sociedad won it
Real Sociedad struck first through Takefusa Kubo in the 3rd minute, set up by Héctor Fort. Orri Óskarsson made it 0-2 to Real Sociedad in the 26th minute. Adrián Niño Heredia made it 1-2 to Málaga in the 54th minute, set up by Pablo Martínez. Mikel Oyarzabal made it 1-3 to Real Sociedad in the 59th minute, set up by Takefusa Kubo. Pablo Martínez made it 2-3 to Málaga in the 66th minute. Mikel Oyarzabal made it 2-4 to Real Sociedad in the 67th minute, set up by Jon Martín Vicente. Gonçalo Guedes made it 2-5 to Real Sociedad in the 73rd minute.
It was 0-2 at half-time.
Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice.
The referee, L. Bestard Servera, showed 3 yellow cards: 1 to Málaga and 2 to Real Sociedad.
Málaga: J. Funes Arjona, 4-4-2 · Real Sociedad: P. Matarazzo, 4-4-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Real Sociedad -0.50, was right: 2-5 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was a Real Sociedad win at 47%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.9 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 55%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 58%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Real Sociedad win at 41%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.08 for Málaga and 1.70 for Real Sociedad.
Real Sociedad made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 3.3 goals.
Málaga had 6 shots on target, Real Sociedad 9.
Real Sociedad had 55% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Málaga came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.79 against, and had won 0% of their matches.
Real Sociedad came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.35 expected goals for and 1.73 against, and had won 58% of their matches.
Málaga vs Real Sociedad: the match in numbers
| Málaga | Match statistics | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Ball possession | 55% |
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 |
| 17 | Total shots | 21 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 4 | Big chances | 4 |
| 478 | Total passes | 590 |
| 86% | Pass accuracy | 89% |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 4 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 22 | Tackles | 18 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad), rated 8.9 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
Málaga
- Pablo Martínez 8.5 1 goal, 1 assist
- David Larrubia 7.1
- Joaquín Muñoz 6.8
- Carlos Dotor 6.8
- Adrián Niño Heredia 6.8 1 goal
Real Sociedad
- Mikel Oyarzabal 8.9 2 goals
- Takefusa Kubo 7.7 1 goal, 1 assist
- Carlos Soler 7.5
- Jon Martín Vicente 7.4 1 assist
- Gonçalo Guedes 7.3 1 goal
The lowest-rated starter was Alfonso Herrero at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Málaga: Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026 · La Liga
- Real Sociedad: Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Sunday 22 November 2026 · La Liga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Málaga vs Real Sociedad
What was the score in Málaga vs Real Sociedad?
Málaga 2-5 Real Sociedad (half-time 0-2), La Liga, Sunday 18 October 2026.
Who scored in Málaga vs Real Sociedad?
Takefusa Kubo 3', Orri Óskarsson 26', Adrián Niño Heredia 54', Mikel Oyarzabal 59', Pablo Martínez 66', Mikel Oyarzabal 67', Gonçalo Guedes 73'.
Did Moneyball predict Málaga vs Real Sociedad correctly?
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Real Sociedad -0.50, was right: 2-5 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Málaga vs Real Sociedad?
Mikel Oyarzabal, rated 8.9 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Málaga vs Real Sociedad?
L. Bestard Servera.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.