Lokomotiv Moskva 0-4 Spartak Moskva: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Russian Premier League Matchday 13 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · RZD Arena, Moskva · referee A. Chistyakov · full time
Full time: Lokomotiv Moskva 0-4 Spartak Moskva
Spartak Moskva won 4-0 away at Lokomotiv Moskva in Russian Premier League Matchday 13 on Sunday 1 November 2026. The goals: Victor Parada 33', Manfred Ugalde 45', Esequiel Barco 76'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Spartak Moskva won it
The opening goal came in the 11th minute: an own goal by Aleksandr Rudenko for Spartak Moskva. Victor Parada made it 0-2 to Spartak Moskva in the 33rd minute, set up by Gedson Fernandes. Manfred Ugalde made it 0-3 to Spartak Moskva in the 45th minute, set up by Ruslan Litvinov. Esequiel Barco from the penalty spot made it 0-4 to Spartak Moskva in the 76th minute.
It was 0-3 at half-time.
The referee, A. Chistyakov, showed 4 yellow cards: 3 to Lokomotiv Moskva and 1 to Spartak Moskva.
Lokomotiv Moskva: M. Galaktionov, 5-4-1 · Spartak Moskva: J. Carcedo Mardones, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Spartak Moskva win the most likely outcome at 51%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-2 rather than 0-4.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.8 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 56%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-01, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.92 for Lokomotiv Moskva and 1.36 for Spartak Moskva.
Lokomotiv Moskva scored about 2.9 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Spartak Moskva made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 2.6 goals.
Lokomotiv Moskva created the better chances, 2.92 xG to 1.36, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Spartak Moskva to create more, and Lokomotiv Moskva did.
Lokomotiv Moskva had 4 shots on target, Spartak Moskva 9.
Lokomotiv Moskva's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
Spartak Moskva had 56% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Lokomotiv Moskva came into it with 14 Russian Premier League matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.22 expected goals for and 2.05 against, and had won 14% of their matches.
Spartak Moskva came into it with 14 Russian Premier League matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.86 expected goals for and 1.09 against, and had won 64% of their matches.
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva: the match in numbers
| Lokomotiv Moskva | Match statistics | Spartak Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Ball possession | 56% |
| 2.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 14 | Total shots | 19 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 0 | Big chances | 4 |
| 410 | Total passes | 530 |
| 81% | Pass accuracy | 86% |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 19 | Tackles | 18 |
| 6 | Saves | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Manfred Ugalde (Spartak Moskva), rated 8.1 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Lokomotiv Moskva
- Anton Mitryushkin 7.1
- Nikolay Komlichenko 6.9
- Sergey Pinyaev 6.9
- A. Kovalenko 6.8
- Mikhail Shchetinin 6.7
Spartak Moskva
- Manfred Ugalde 8.1 1 goal
- Esequiel Barco 7.9 1 goal
- Ruslan Litvinov 7.8 1 assist
- Aleksandr Maksimenko 7.7
- Marquinhos 7.6
The lowest-rated starter was Aleksandr Rudenko at 5.4. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Lokomotiv Moskva: Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026 · Russian Premier League
- Spartak Moskva: Dynamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026 · Russian Premier League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva
What was the score in Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva?
Lokomotiv Moskva 0-4 Spartak Moskva (half-time 0-3), Russian Premier League, Sunday 1 November 2026.
Who scored in Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva?
Victor Parada 33', Manfred Ugalde 45', Esequiel Barco 76'.
Did Moneyball predict Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva correctly?
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Spartak Moskva win the most likely outcome at 51%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-2 rather than 0-4.
Who was man of the match in Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva?
Manfred Ugalde, rated 8.1 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva?
A. Chistyakov.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.