Lincoln City 1-3 Birmingham City: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Championship Matchday 13 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · LNER Stadium, Lincoln · referee L. Smith · full time
Full time: Lincoln City 1-3 Birmingham City
Birmingham City beat Lincoln City 3-1 in Championship Matchday 13 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at LNER Stadium. The goals: August Priske Flyger 16', August Priske Flyger 60', Tom Bayliss 63', Alex Cochrane 73'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Birmingham City won it
Birmingham City struck first through August Priske Flyger in the 16th minute. August Priske Flyger made it 0-2 to Birmingham City in the 60th minute, set up by Christoph Klarer. Tom Bayliss made it 1-2 to Lincoln City in the 63rd minute, set up by Mikkel Ladefoged. Alex Cochrane made it 1-3 to Birmingham City in the 73rd minute, set up by Ryan Allsop.
It was 0-1 at half-time.
August Priske Flyger scored twice.
The referee, L. Smith, showed 6 yellow cards: 4 to Lincoln City and 2 to Birmingham City.
Lincoln City: T. Shaw, 4-2-3-1 · Birmingham City: C. Davies, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A Birmingham City win was the estimate's call at 45%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-2 was the likeliest, 1-3 the real one.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.9 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 55%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 58%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.33 for Lincoln City and 1.30 for Birmingham City.
Lincoln City scored about 1.3 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Birmingham City made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.7 goals.
Lincoln City created the better chances, 2.33 xG to 1.30, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Birmingham City to create more, and Lincoln City did.
Lincoln City had 6 shots on target, Birmingham City 7.
Birmingham City's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Lincoln City had 55% of the ball, but Birmingham City took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Lincoln City came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.42 expected goals for and 1.62 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Birmingham City came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 1.89 expected goals for and 1.37 against, and had won 53% of their matches.
Lincoln City vs Birmingham City: the match in numbers
| Lincoln City | Match statistics | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| 55% | Ball possession | 45% |
| 2.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.30 |
| 12 | Total shots | 17 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 2 | Big chances | 5 |
| 401 | Total passes | 335 |
| 67% | Pass accuracy | 67% |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 12 | Tackles | 12 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: August Priske Flyger (Birmingham City), rated 8.4 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
Lincoln City
- Mikkel Ladefoged 7.3 1 assist
- Tom Bayliss 7.1 1 goal
- Adam Reach 7.0
- Dom Jefferies 6.9
- Deji Elerewe 6.7
Birmingham City
- August Priske Flyger 8.4 2 goals
- Alex Cochrane 7.5 1 goal
- Christoph Klarer 7.5 1 assist
- J. Beadle 7.3
- Tomoki Iwata 7.0
The lowest-rated starter was Yunus Konak at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Lincoln City: Lincoln City vs Wrexham Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
- Birmingham City: Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Lincoln City vs Birmingham City
What was the score in Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
Lincoln City 1-3 Birmingham City (half-time 0-1), Championship, Saturday 31 October 2026.
Who scored in Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
August Priske Flyger 16', August Priske Flyger 60', Tom Bayliss 63', Alex Cochrane 73'.
Did Moneyball predict Lincoln City vs Birmingham City correctly?
A Birmingham City win was the estimate's call at 45%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-2 was the likeliest, 1-3 the real one.
Who was man of the match in Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
August Priske Flyger, rated 8.4 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?
L. Smith.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.