Lens 1–2 Marseille: Result, Report and Stats
Ligue 1 · Monday 9 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Lens 1 – 2 Marseille
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave Marseille win 32%. The consensus had leaned to a Lens win (41%); the result went against it.
- 3 goals in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
Lens welcome Marseille to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Ligue 1 action on Monday 9 November 2026.
Lens have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 75% win rate. Marseille have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, there is little to separate them: Lens 41%, the draw 27%, Marseille 32%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 50%.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 49.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Marseille keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.97 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.4).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 55.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Lens vs Marseille: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 |
| 1.60 | xG conceded | 1.97 |
| 1.70 | Goals | 2.20 |
| 12.9 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 2.2 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 53.0 | Pressure share % | 48.1 |
| 16.8 | Tackles | 14.6 |
| 12.7 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 10 measured matches.
Lens vs Marseille: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lens have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lens 6, Marseille 9 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lens 1-2 Marseille (November 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Lens won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Lens | 1 – 2 | Marseille |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Marseille | 3 – 1 | Lens |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Lens | 2 – 1 | Marseille |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Marseille | 0 – 1 | Lens |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Lens | 1 – 3 | Marseille |
Players to watch
Lens
- Andrija Bulatovic CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Michaël Cuisance CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 65 · Secure passer, Creator (top 6% of his position)
Marseille
- Nayef Aguerd CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 66 · Ball circulator, Dominant in the air (top 7% of his position)
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Disciplined, Hard to dribble past (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 76
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 73
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.98 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 3.18 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.49 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.03 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.45 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Marseille prediction
Marseille should have more of the ball, with Lens likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Lens work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.93 for Lens and 1.69 for Marseille - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 70%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lens 2-2 Marseille
Lens vs Marseille: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 3 or more goals 70% by the model, 3.63 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Lens vs Marseille: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Marseille?
Lens vs Marseille is on Monday 9 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Lens vs Marseille played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Marseille?
It is close: Lens 41%, draw 27%, Marseille 32%. Our prediction is Lens 2-2 Marseille.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Marseille?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Marseille?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.