Lecce 1-2 Bologna: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Serie A Matchday 6 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce · referee L. Pairetto · full time
Full time: Lecce 1-2 Bologna
Bologna won 2-1 away at Lecce in Serie A Matchday 6 on Sunday 11 October 2026. The goals: Riccardo Orsolini 17', Amar Fatah 64', Jay Enem 75'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Bologna won it
The opening goal came in the 17th minute: Riccardo Orsolini for Bologna, set up by Nicolò Cambiaghi. Lecce levelled at 1-1 in the 64th minute through Amar Fatah, set up by Danilo Veiga. Jay Enem made it 1-2 to Bologna in the 75th minute, set up by Nicolò Cambiaghi.
It was 0-1 at half-time.
The referee, L. Pairetto, showed 5 yellow cards: 3 to Lecce and 2 to Bologna.
Lecce: E. Di Francesco, 4-3-3 · Bologna: R. Palladino, 3-4-2-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Bologna win the most likely outcome at 40%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 1-2.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.4 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 43%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 50%; both did, against the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Bologna win at 44%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.78 for Lecce and 1.27 for Bologna.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Bologna to create more, and Lecce did.
Lecce had 5 shots on target, Bologna 5.
Lecce had 57% of the ball, but Bologna took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Lecce came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.18 expected goals for and 1.72 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Bologna came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.63 expected goals for and 1.23 against, and had won 45% of their matches.
Lecce vs Bologna: the match in numbers
| Lecce | Match statistics | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| 57% | Ball possession | 43% |
| 1.78 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.27 |
| 19 | Total shots | 9 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 2 | Big chances | 3 |
| 409 | Total passes | 314 |
| 84% | Pass accuracy | 80% |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 11 | Tackles | 22 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Nicolò Cambiaghi (Bologna), rated 8.6 by Sportmonks, with 2 assists.
Lecce
- Danilo Veiga 7.8 1 assist
- Amar Fatah 7.5 1 goal
- Omri Gandelman 7.0
- Oumar Ngom 7.0
- Lassana Coulibaly 6.9
Bologna
- Nicolò Cambiaghi 8.6 2 assists
- Juan Miranda 7.1
- Nadir Zortea 7.0
- Riccardo Orsolini 7.0 1 goal
- Jay Enem 7.0 1 goal
The lowest-rated starter was Youssef Maleh at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Lecce: Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026 · Serie A
- Bologna: Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Lecce vs Bologna
What was the score in Lecce vs Bologna?
Lecce 1-2 Bologna (half-time 0-1), Serie A, Sunday 11 October 2026.
Who scored in Lecce vs Bologna?
Riccardo Orsolini 17', Amar Fatah 64', Jay Enem 75'.
Did Moneyball predict Lecce vs Bologna correctly?
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Bologna win the most likely outcome at 40%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 1-2.
Who was man of the match in Lecce vs Bologna?
Nicolò Cambiaghi, rated 8.6 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Lecce vs Bologna?
L. Pairetto.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.