Lazio 2-1 Cagliari: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Lazio won it

M'Bala Nzola put Cagliari ahead in the 20th minute, set up by Alieu Fadera. Lazio levelled at 1-1 in the 36th minute through Gustav Isaksen, set up by Tijjani Noslin. Lazio turned it round: Andrea Pinamonti made it 2-1 in the 83rd minute, set up by Alfonso Pedraza.

It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The lead changed hands once.

Adam Obert of Cagliari was sent off in the 90th minute (+1) for a second yellow card. The referee, A. Colombo, showed 4 yellow cards: 1 to Lazio and 3 to Cagliari.

Lazio: I. Gattuso, 4-3-3 · Cagliari: F. Pisacane, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Lazio Win, and on 2-1 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was a Lazio win at 62%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (11%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.8 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 50%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Lazio win at 66%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-01, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.27 for Lazio and 1.31 for Cagliari.

Lazio had 4 shots on target, Cagliari 3.

Lazio had 74% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Lazio came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.57 expected goals for and 1.29 against, and had won 82% of their matches.

Cagliari came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.17 expected goals for and 1.82 against, and had won 45% of their matches.

Lazio vs Cagliari: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Gustav Isaksen (Lazio), rated 7.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Lazio

• Gustav Isaksen 7.6 1 goal
• Kenneth Taylor 7.4
• Oliver Provstgaard 7.3
• Andrea Pinamonti 7.2 1 goal
• Alfonso Pedraza 7.2 1 assist

Cagliari

• Alieu Fadera 7.2 1 assist
• M'Bala Nzola 7.1 1 goal
• Zé Pedro 6.7
• Juan Rodríguez 6.6
• Yael Trepy 6.6

The lowest-rated starter was Alessandro Deiola at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Lazio: Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026 · Serie A
• Cagliari: Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Lazio vs Cagliari

What was the score in Lazio vs Cagliari?

Lazio 2-1 Cagliari (half-time 1-1), Serie A, Sunday 1 November 2026.

Who scored in Lazio vs Cagliari?

M'Bala Nzola 20', Gustav Isaksen 36', Andrea Pinamonti 83'.

Did Moneyball predict Lazio vs Cagliari correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Lazio Win, and on 2-1 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Lazio vs Cagliari?

Gustav Isaksen, rated 7.6 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Lazio vs Cagliari?

A. Colombo.