Houston Dynamo 0-1 St. Louis City: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
MLS · Sunday 8 November 2026 · Shell Energy Stadium, Houston · referee A. Chapman · full time
Full time: Houston Dynamo 0-1 St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo 0-1 St. Louis City: St. Louis City took the points in MLS on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Shell Energy Stadium. The goals: Lukas MacNaughton 90+7'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How St. Louis City won it
Lukas MacNaughton put St. Louis City ahead in the 90th minute (+7), set up by Alexandru Mățan. There was no time to answer it.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, A. Chapman, showed 1 yellow card: 1 to Houston Dynamo and 0 to St. Louis City.
Houston Dynamo: B. Olsen, 4-1-4-1 · St. Louis City: Y. Damet, 3-4-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A St. Louis City win was the estimate's call at 40%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-2 was the likeliest, 0-1 the real one.
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.6 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 49%; with 1 goal the under came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 54%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.33 for Houston Dynamo and 1.44 for St. Louis City.
Houston Dynamo scored about 1.3 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Houston Dynamo had 6 shots on target, St. Louis City 1.
St. Louis City's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
St. Louis City had 59% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Houston Dynamo came into it with 34 MLS matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.09 expected goals for and 1.79 against, and had won 41% of their matches.
St. Louis City came into it with 34 MLS matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.53 expected goals for and 1.47 against, and had won 44% of their matches.
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City: the match in numbers
| Houston Dynamo | Match statistics | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| 41% | Ball possession | 59% |
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 23 | Total shots | 13 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 1 | Big chances | 0 |
| 322 | Total passes | 480 |
| 84% | Pass accuracy | 89% |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 13 | Tackles | 15 |
| 0 | Saves | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Lukas MacNaughton (St. Louis City), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme 8.1
- Agustin Resch 7.8
- Mateusz Bogusz 6.9
- Agustín Bouzat 6.9
- Duncan McGuire 6.9
St. Louis City
- Lukas MacNaughton 8.2 1 goal
- Ben Lundt 8.0
- Fallou Fall 7.5
- Chris Durkin 7.2
- Alexandru Mățan 7.0 1 assist
The lowest-rated starter was Franco Negri at 6.5. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Houston Dynamo: SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Wednesday 25 November 2026 · MLS
- St. Louis City: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC Tuesday 24 November 2026 · MLS
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City
What was the score in Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
Houston Dynamo 0-1 St. Louis City (half-time 0-0), MLS, Sunday 8 November 2026.
Who scored in Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
Lukas MacNaughton 90+7'.
Did Moneyball predict Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City correctly?
A St. Louis City win was the estimate's call at 40%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-2 was the likeliest, 0-1 the real one.
Who was man of the match in Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
Lukas MacNaughton, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
A. Chapman.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.