Estudiantes 3-3 Instituto: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Liga Profesional Argentina Matchday 15 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · Estadio Ciudad de La Plata, La Plata · referee H. Mastrángelo · full time
Full time: Estudiantes 3-3 Instituto
Estudiantes and Instituto drew 3-3 in Liga Profesional Argentina Matchday 15 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de La Plata. The goals: Facundo Suárez 3', Leonel Mosevich 48', Jhon Córdoba 52', Guido Carrillo 58', Tiago Palacios 65', Fabricio Pérez 86'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How the match unfolded
Facundo Suárez put Instituto ahead in the 3rd minute. Leonel Mosevich made it 0-2 to Instituto in the 48th minute, set up by Alex Luna. Jhon Córdoba made it 0-3 to Instituto in the 52nd minute, set up by Alex Luna. Guido Carrillo made it 1-3 to Estudiantes in the 58th minute, set up by Ezequiel Piovi. Tiago Palacios made it 2-3 to Estudiantes in the 65th minute. Estudiantes levelled at 3-3 in the 86th minute through Fabricio Pérez, set up by Edwuin Cetré. It came with the clock nearly run down, and it rescued a point.
Instituto led by three and were pegged back: Estudiantes came back for a draw.
It was 0-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Santiago Núñez of Estudiantes was sent off in the 50th minute for a second yellow card. The referee, H. Mastrángelo, showed 9 yellow cards: 4 to Estudiantes and 5 to Instituto.
Estudiantes: A. Medina Reobasco, 4-2-3-1 · Instituto: D. Flores, 3-4-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made an Instituto win the likeliest outcome (39%), and a draw, at 30%, is what happened.
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.3 goals and there were 6.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 40%; with 6 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 47%; both did, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.83 for Estudiantes and 1.87 for Instituto.
Estudiantes scored about 2.2 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Instituto made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.1 goals.
Instituto created the better chances, 1.87 xG to 0.83, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
Estudiantes had 8 shots on target, Instituto 5.
Instituto's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Estudiantes had 74% of the ball.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Estudiantes came into it with 33 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 1.28 expected goals for and 1.26 against, and had won 39% of their matches.
Instituto came into it with 32 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 1.40 expected goals for and 0.83 against, and had won 50% of their matches.
Estudiantes vs Instituto: the match in numbers
| Estudiantes | Match statistics | Instituto |
|---|---|---|
| 74% | Ball possession | 26% |
| 0.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.87 |
| 16 | Total shots | 9 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 3 | Big chances | 2 |
| 567 | Total passes | 186 |
| 86% | Pass accuracy | 69% |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 10 | Tackles | 4 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Fabricio Pérez (Estudiantes), rated 8.0 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Estudiantes
- Fabricio Pérez 8.0 1 goal
- Tiago Palacios 7.5 1 goal
- Ezequiel Piovi 7.2 1 assist
- Guido Carrillo 7.2 1 goal
- Edwuin Cetré 7.0 1 assist
Instituto
- Alex Luna 7.8 2 assists
- Facundo Suárez 7.5 1 goal
- Marcos Ledesma 7.0
- Jhon Córdoba 6.9 1 goal
- Jeremías Lázaro 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Fernando Muslera at 5.6. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Instituto: Instituto vs Huracán Monday 23 November 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Estudiantes vs Instituto
What was the score in Estudiantes vs Instituto?
Estudiantes 3-3 Instituto (half-time 0-1), Liga Profesional Argentina, Sunday 1 November 2026.
Who scored in Estudiantes vs Instituto?
Facundo Suárez 3', Leonel Mosevich 48', Jhon Córdoba 52', Guido Carrillo 58', Tiago Palacios 65', Fabricio Pérez 86'.
Did Moneyball predict Estudiantes vs Instituto correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made an Instituto win the likeliest outcome (39%), and a draw, at 30%, is what happened.
Who was man of the match in Estudiantes vs Instituto?
Fabricio Pérez, rated 8.0 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Estudiantes vs Instituto?
H. Mastrángelo.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.