Estoril 1-3 Moreirense: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Moreirense won it

Moreirense struck first through Manuel Mendonça in the 12th minute. Tiago Andrade made it 0-2 to Moreirense in the 15th minute. Nile John made it 0-3 to Moreirense in the 28th minute. Peixinho made it 1-3 to Estoril in the 90th minute (+4).

It was 0-3 at half-time.

The referee, C. Fernandes Macedo, showed 4 yellow cards: 3 to Estoril and 1 to Moreirense.

Estoril: L. Azevedo Pires, 4-2-3-1 · Moreirense: V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to an Estoril win at 40% and gave a Moreirense win 30%; the match went the other way.

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.3 goals and there were 4.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 40%; with 4 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 47%; both did, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-25, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.23 for Estoril and 2.06 for Moreirense.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Estoril to create more, and Moreirense did.

Estoril had 7 shots on target, Moreirense 4.

Moreirense's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Estoril had 57% of the ball, but Moreirense took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Estoril came into it with 10 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 1.04 expected goals for and 1.66 against, and had won 0% of their matches.

Moreirense came into it with 11 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 0.85 expected goals for and 1.79 against, and had won 36% of their matches.

Estoril vs Moreirense: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Tiago Andrade (Moreirense), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Estoril

• Ferro 7.4
• Jordan Holsgrove 7.4
• Peixinho 7.4 1 goal
• Rafik Guitane 6.9
• Xavi Sintes 6.7

Moreirense

• Tiago Andrade 8.2 1 goal
• Nile John 7.6 1 goal
• André Ferreira 7.2
• Kiko Bondoso 7.2
• Leonardo Vonić 7.1

The lowest-rated starter was Ricard Sánchez at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

Questions about Estoril vs Moreirense

What was the score in Estoril vs Moreirense?

Estoril 1-3 Moreirense (half-time 0-3), Liga Portugal, Sunday 25 October 2026.

Who scored in Estoril vs Moreirense?

Manuel Mendonça 12', Tiago Andrade 15', Nile John 28', Peixinho 90+4'.

Did Moneyball predict Estoril vs Moreirense correctly?

The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to an Estoril win at 40% and gave a Moreirense win 30%; the match went the other way.

Who was man of the match in Estoril vs Moreirense?

Tiago Andrade, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Estoril vs Moreirense?

C. Fernandes Macedo.