Derby County 3-1 Bolton Wanderers: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Derby County won it

Rúben Rodrigues put Bolton Wanderers ahead in the 42nd minute, set up by Gaizka Larrazabal. Derby County levelled at 1-1 in the 46th minute through Ryan Nyambe, set up by Mohammed Fuseini. Derby County turned it round: Jack Robinson made it 2-1 in the 49th minute, set up by Carlton Morris. Rhian Brewster made it 3-1 to Derby County in the 90th minute (+4).

It was 0-1 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.

The lead changed hands once.

The referee, J. Bell, showed 3 yellow cards: 1 to Derby County and 2 to Bolton Wanderers.

Derby County: J. Eustace, 4-2-3-1 · Bolton Wanderers: S. Schumacher, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to a Bolton Wanderers win at 43% and gave a Derby County win 32%; the match went the other way.

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.1 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 61%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 63%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-05, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.10 for Derby County and 1.54 for Bolton Wanderers.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Bolton Wanderers to create more, and Derby County did.

Derby County had 5 shots on target, Bolton Wanderers 6.

Derby County's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Bolton Wanderers had 70% of the ball, but Derby County took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Derby County came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.11 expected goals for and 2.10 against, and had won 13% of their matches.

Bolton Wanderers came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 1.44 expected goals for and 1.98 against, and had won 33% of their matches.

Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Rúben Rodrigues (Bolton Wanderers), rated 8.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Derby County

• Carlton Morris 7.8 1 assist
• Jack Robinson 7.6 1 goal
• Ryan Nyambe 7.4 1 goal
• Jacob Widell Zetterström 7.2
• Rhian Brewster 7.1 1 goal

Bolton Wanderers

• Rúben Rodrigues 8.6 1 goal
• Josh Sheehan 7.0
• Gaizka Larrazabal 6.9 1 assist
• Thierry Gale 6.8
• Sam Dalby 6.8

The lowest-rated starter was Lewis Travis at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Derby County: Southampton vs Derby County Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
• Bolton Wanderers: Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers

What was the score in Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?

Derby County 3-1 Bolton Wanderers (half-time 0-1), Championship, Friday 6 November 2026.

Who scored in Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?

Rúben Rodrigues 42', Ryan Nyambe 46', Jack Robinson 49', Rhian Brewster 90+4'.

Did Moneyball predict Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers correctly?

The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to a Bolton Wanderers win at 43% and gave a Derby County win 32%; the match went the other way.

Who was man of the match in Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?

Rúben Rodrigues, rated 8.6 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?

J. Bell.