Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Cruzeiro won it

Bahia struck first through Cristian Olivera in the 32nd minute, set up by Rodrigo Nestor. Cruzeiro levelled at 1-1 in the 45th minute (+2) through Kaio Jorge, set up by Keny Arroyo. Cruzeiro turned it round: Bruno Rodrigues made it 2-1 in the 69th minute, set up by Keny Arroyo. Kaio Jorge made it 3-1 to Cruzeiro in the 86th minute, set up by Lucas Romero. Alejo Veliz made it 3-2 to Bahia in the 90th minute (+5), set up by Luciano Juba.

It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

Kaio Jorge scored twice.

The lead changed hands once.

The referee, R. Klein, showed 5 yellow cards: 3 to Cruzeiro and 2 to Bahia. Kaio Jorge missed a penalty for Cruzeiro in the 63 minute.

Cruzeiro: Artur Jorge, 4-2-3-1 · Bahia: R. Mücke Ceni, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.00, and on 3-2 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was a Cruzeiro win at 52%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (9%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.6 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 68%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 68%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-05, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.86 for Cruzeiro and 3.44 for Bahia.

Cruzeiro scored about 2.1 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Bahia left about 1.4 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Bahia created the better chances, 3.44 xG to 0.86, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Cruzeiro to create more, and Bahia did.

Cruzeiro had 8 shots on target, Bahia 5.

Bahia's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Bahia had 56% of the ball, but Cruzeiro took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Cruzeiro came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.53 expected goals for and 1.66 against, and had won 53% of their matches.

Bahia came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.54 expected goals for and 1.67 against, and had won 41% of their matches.

Cruzeiro vs Bahia: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Keny Arroyo (Cruzeiro), rated 8.4 by Sportmonks, with 2 assists.

Cruzeiro

• Keny Arroyo 8.4 2 assists
• Kaio Jorge 7.8 2 goals
• Bruno Rodrigues 7.6 1 goal
• Matías Viña 7.3
• Gabriel Rojas 7.2

Bahia

• Alejo Veliz 7.3 1 goal
• Luciano Juba 7.2 1 assist
• Nicolás Acevedo 7.0
• Erick 6.8
• Cristian Olivera 6.8 1 goal

The lowest-rated starter was Kanu at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Cruzeiro: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026 · Brasileirão
• Bahia: Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026 · Brasileirão

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Cruzeiro vs Bahia

What was the score in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia (half-time 1-1), Brasileirão, Friday 6 November 2026.

Who scored in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Cristian Olivera 32', Kaio Jorge 45+2', Bruno Rodrigues 69', Kaio Jorge 86', Alejo Veliz 90+5'.

Did Moneyball predict Cruzeiro vs Bahia correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.00, and on 3-2 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Keny Arroyo, rated 8.4 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

R. Klein.