Coritiba 0-1 Grêmio: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Brasileirão Matchday 32 · Monday 26 October 2026 · Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba · referee R. Abatti · full time
Full time: Coritiba 0-1 Grêmio
Grêmio beat Coritiba 1-0 in Brasileirão Matchday 32 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. The goals: Martin Braithwaite 90+2'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Grêmio won it
Grêmio struck first through Martin Braithwaite in the 90th minute (+2), set up by Francis Amuzu. There was no time to answer it.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, R. Abatti, showed 1 yellow card: 1 to Coritiba and 0 to Grêmio.
Coritiba: F. Seabra, 4-2-3-1 · Grêmio: R. Portaluppi, 3-4-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.25, and on 0-1 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a Coritiba win at 42%; a Grêmio win, at 30%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (13%).
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.6 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 48%; with 1 goal the under came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 53%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Coritiba win at 41%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-26, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.87 for Coritiba and 1.12 for Grêmio.
Coritiba scored about 1.9 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Coritiba had 4 shots on target, Grêmio 6.
Coritiba's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Grêmio had 58% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Coritiba came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.09 expected goals for and 1.74 against, and had won 32% of their matches.
Grêmio came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.93 against, and had won 26% of their matches.
Coritiba vs Grêmio: the match in numbers
| Coritiba | Match statistics | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| 42% | Ball possession | 58% |
| 1.87 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 |
| 12 | Total shots | 18 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 2 | Big chances | 5 |
| 321 | Total passes | 431 |
| 76% | Pass accuracy | 82% |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 15 | Tackles | 10 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Josué (Coritiba), rated 7.6 by Sportmonks.
Coritiba
- Josué 7.6
- Pedro Morisco 7.4
- Paulo Roberto 7.2
- Jacy 7.2
- Nicolás Fonseca 7.1
Grêmio
- Marlon 7.5
- Wallace 7.3
- Martin Braithwaite 7.3 1 goal
- Weverton 7.2
- Francis Amuzu 7.0 1 assist
The lowest-rated starter was Tinga at 6.4. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Coritiba: Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026 · Brasileirão
- Grêmio: Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026 · Brasileirão
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Coritiba vs Grêmio
What was the score in Coritiba vs Grêmio?
Coritiba 0-1 Grêmio (half-time 0-0), Brasileirão, Monday 26 October 2026.
Who scored in Coritiba vs Grêmio?
Martin Braithwaite 90+2'.
Did Moneyball predict Coritiba vs Grêmio correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.25, and on 0-1 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Coritiba vs Grêmio?
Josué, rated 7.6 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Coritiba vs Grêmio?
R. Abatti.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.