Rizespor 3-4 Trabzonspor: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Süper Lig Matchday 9 · Monday 26 October 2026 · Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize · referee H. Meler · full time
Full time: Rizespor 3-4 Trabzonspor
Rizespor 3-4 Trabzonspor: Trabzonspor took the points in Süper Lig Matchday 9 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. The goals: Gennaro Borrelli 12', Gennaro Borrelli 32', Melih Kabasakal 49', Aral Şimşir 51', Franculino 57', Qazim Laci 68', Franculino 83'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Trabzonspor won it
Gennaro Borrelli put Rizespor ahead in the 12th minute. Gennaro Borrelli made it 2-0 to Rizespor in the 32nd minute, set up by Adedire Mebude. Melih Kabasakal made it 2-1 to Trabzonspor in the 49th minute, set up by Ernest Muci. Trabzonspor levelled at 2-2 in the 51st minute through Aral Şimşir, set up by Ernest Muci. Trabzonspor turned it round: Franculino made it 2-3 in the 57th minute. Rizespor levelled at 3-3 in the 68th minute through Qazim Laci, set up by Adedire Mebude. Franculino made it 3-4 to Trabzonspor in the 83rd minute, set up by Ernest Muci.
Rizespor were two goals up and lost: Trabzonspor came back from two down to win it.
It was 2-0 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.
Gennaro Borrelli scored twice.
Franculino scored twice.
The lead changed hands once.
Recep Uçar of Rizespor was sent off in the 89th minute for a second yellow card. The referee, H. Meler, showed 5 yellow cards: 3 to Rizespor and 2 to Trabzonspor.
Rizespor: R. Uçar, 4-1-4-1 · Trabzonspor: T. Reis, 4-1-4-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.25, and on 3-4 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a Trabzonspor win at 49%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.2 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 62%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 63%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Trabzonspor win at 48%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-26, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.59 for Rizespor and 1.53 for Trabzonspor.
Trabzonspor made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 2.5 goals.
Rizespor created the better chances, 2.59 xG to 1.53, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Trabzonspor to create more, and Rizespor did.
Rizespor had 6 shots on target, Trabzonspor 7.
Trabzonspor had 53% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Rizespor came into it with 11 Süper Lig matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 1.30 against, and had won 36% of their matches.
Trabzonspor came into it with 11 Süper Lig matches played, scoring 2.4 and conceding 0.7 a match, with 1.74 expected goals for and 1.57 against, and had won 73% of their matches.
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor: the match in numbers
| Rizespor | Match statistics | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Ball possession | 53% |
| 2.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 |
| 9 | Total shots | 14 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 3 | Big chances | 4 |
| 398 | Total passes | 459 |
| 83% | Pass accuracy | 85% |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 28 | Tackles | 23 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Ernest Muci (Trabzonspor), rated 9.0 by Sportmonks, with 3 assists.
Rizespor
- Gennaro Borrelli 8.1 2 goals
- Adedire Mebude 7.4 2 assists
- Ibrahim Olawoyin 7.2
- Qazim Laci 7.1 1 goal
- Valentin Mihăilă 6.8
Trabzonspor
- Ernest Muci 9.0 3 assists
- Franculino 8.5 2 goals
- Melih Kabasakal 7.1 1 goal
- Aral Şimşir 7.0 1 goal
- Fabinho 6.7
The lowest-rated starter was Yahia Fofana at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Rizespor: Amed SK vs Rizespor Saturday 21 November 2026 · Süper Lig
- Trabzonspor: Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor Sunday 22 November 2026 · Süper Lig
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Rizespor vs Trabzonspor
What was the score in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Rizespor 3-4 Trabzonspor (half-time 2-0), Süper Lig, Monday 26 October 2026.
Who scored in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Gennaro Borrelli 12', Gennaro Borrelli 32', Melih Kabasakal 49', Aral Şimşir 51', Franculino 57', Qazim Laci 68', Franculino 83'.
Did Moneyball predict Rizespor vs Trabzonspor correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.25, and on 3-4 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Ernest Muci, rated 9.0 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
H. Meler.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.