MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Brest 2–0 Lyon: Result, Report and Stats

This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.

Result: Brest 2 – 0 Lyon

Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.

Brest welcome Lyon to Stade Francis-Le Ble in Brest in Ligue 1 action on Monday 9 November 2026.

Brest have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Lyon have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 20% win rate.

On the pre-match consensus, there is little to separate them: Brest 34%, the draw 28%, Lyon 38%.

Win probabilities

Brest34%home win
Draw28%draw
Lyon38%away win

The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 48%.

Brest: form and key numbers

In style Brest are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.

Lyon: form and key numbers

In style Lyon keep the ball.

Brest vs Lyon: season averages side by side

BrestPer matchLyon
1.83Expected goals (xG)1.64
1.27xG conceded1.16
1.80Goals1.50
16.1Shots12.8
5.7Shots on target4.6
2.3Big chances missed1.7
49.2Pressure share %54.5
16.7Tackles14.9
14.4Fouls11.7
1.4Yellow cards1.3

Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 10 measured matches.

Brest vs Lyon: head-to-head stats and key numbers

Head to head

In their last 5 meetings Brest won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

DateHomeScoreAway
8 Nov 2026Brest2 – 0Lyon
18 Jan 2026Lyon2 – 1Brest
2 Nov 2025Brest0 – 0Lyon
2 Mar 2025Lyon2 – 1Brest
11 Jan 2025Brest2 – 1Lyon

Players to watch

Brest

Lyon

Scouting spotlight: Ernest Nuamah

Ernest Nuamah, 23 · Olympique Lyonnais · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61

Ernest Nuamah, 23, plays as a winger for Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Successful dribbles 64Expected goals 97Expected assists 32Key passes 25Shots 83Accurate crosses 78Big chances created 48Fouls won 63Dispossessed 64

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

  • RW · Winger Natural, 61
  • LW · Winger Accomplished, 58
  • ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 53

Where he is strongest

FigureHis numberBetter than
Expected goals0.48 / 9097%
Shots3.34 / 9083%
Accurate crosses1.11 / 9078%
Successful dribbles2.07 / 9064%
Dispossessed0.95 / 9064%

Roles he suits

  • ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
  • ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
  • ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker

Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.

In Moneyball Scout
  • What Ernest Nuamah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
  • How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
  • The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
  • His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Ernest Nuamah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

Brest vs Lyon prediction

Lyon should have more of the ball, with Brest likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.48 for Brest and 1.24 for Lyon - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.

Prediction: Brest 1-1 Lyon

Brest vs Lyon: what the numbers say

  1. 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
  2. 2. 2 or more goals 2.72 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
  3. 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
  4. 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
  5. 5. 9 or more corners 8.6 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

Moneyball's reading

The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.

Follow Brest vs Lyon live

Brest vs Lyon: questions and answers

When is Brest vs Lyon?

Brest vs Lyon is on Monday 9 November 2026, in Ligue 1.

Where is Brest vs Lyon played?

At Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest, Brest's home ground.

Who will win Brest vs Lyon?

It is close: Brest 34%, draw 28%, Lyon 38%. Our prediction is Brest 1-1 Lyon.

Who is the player to watch in Brest vs Lyon?

Ernest Nuamah of Olympique Lyonnais: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in Brest vs Lyon?

Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.

Tags

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.