AFC Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Europa League Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October 2026 · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · referee J. Brisard · full time
Full time: AFC Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz
AFC Bournemouth beat Sturm Graz 3-0 in Europa League Matchday 2 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium. The goals: Evanilson 43', Rayan 76', Álvaro Rodríguez 90+2'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How AFC Bournemouth won it
The opening goal came in the 43rd minute: Evanilson for AFC Bournemouth, set up by Adam Smith. Rayan made it 2-0 to AFC Bournemouth in the 76th minute. Álvaro Rodríguez from the penalty spot made it 3-0 to AFC Bournemouth in the 90th minute (+2).
It was 1-0 at half-time.
The referee, J. Brisard, showed 6 yellow cards: 3 to AFC Bournemouth and 3 to Sturm Graz.
AFC Bournemouth: M. Rose, 4-4-2 · Sturm Graz: F. Ingolitsch, 5-3-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Sturm Graz win the likeliest outcome (42%), and an AFC Bournemouth win, at 30%, is what happened.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.5 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 47%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 52%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
AFC Bournemouth had 7 shots on target, Sturm Graz 1.
AFC Bournemouth had 62% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
AFC Bournemouth came into it with 4 Europa League matches played, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.5 a match, with 2.46 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.
Sturm Graz came into it with 4 Europa League matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.44 expected goals for and – against, and had won 25% of their matches.
AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: the match in numbers
| AFC Bournemouth | Match statistics | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| 62% | Ball possession | 38% |
| 23 | Total shots | 6 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 5 | Big chances | 0 |
| 464 | Total passes | 291 |
| 82% | Pass accuracy | 70% |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 13 | Tackles | 13 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: António Silva (AFC Bournemouth), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
AFC Bournemouth
- António Silva 7.7
- Evanilson 7.7 1 goal
- Rayan 7.5 1 goal
- Adam Smith 7.4 1 assist
- James Hill 7.4
Sturm Graz
- Simon Seidl 7.0
- Jon Gorenc Stankovic 6.9
- Jürgen Heil 6.6
- Jacob Peter Hödl 6.5
- Paul Koller 6.5
The lowest-rated starter was Daniil Khudyakov at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
- Sturm Graz: TSG Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz Thursday 26 November 2026 · Europa League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
What was the score in AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
AFC Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz (half-time 1-0), Europa League, Thursday 15 October 2026.
Who scored in AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Evanilson 43', Rayan 76', Álvaro Rodríguez 90+2'.
Did Moneyball predict AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Sturm Graz win the likeliest outcome (42%), and an AFC Bournemouth win, at 30%, is what happened.
Who was man of the match in AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
António Silva, rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
J. Brisard.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.