Bolton Wanderers 2-3 Bristol City: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Championship Matchday 13 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton · referee R. Madley · full time
Full time: Bolton Wanderers 2-3 Bristol City
Bolton Wanderers 2-3 Bristol City: Bristol City took the points in Championship Matchday 13 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Toughsheet Community Stadium. The goals: Dom Ballard 13', Josh Sheehan 16', Sam Dalby 57', Sam Bell 84', Scott Twine 90+3'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Bristol City won it
The opening goal came in the 13th minute: Dom Ballard for Bristol City, set up by Jason Knight. Bolton Wanderers levelled at 1-1 in the 16th minute through Josh Sheehan, set up by Thierry Gale. Bolton Wanderers turned it round: Sam Dalby made it 2-1 in the 57th minute, set up by Atsuki Ito. Bristol City levelled at 2-2 in the 84th minute through Sam Bell, set up by Cameron Pring. Bristol City turned it round: Scott Twine made it 2-3 in the 90th minute (+3), set up by Jed Wallace. A late goal, and the one that decided the result.
It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The lead changed hands 2 times.
The referee, R. Madley, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to Bolton Wanderers and 1 to Bristol City.
Bolton Wanderers: S. Schumacher, 4-2-3-1 · Bristol City: M. Skubala, 3-5-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Bolton Wanderers win the likeliest outcome (38%), and a Bristol City win, at 35%, is what happened.
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.8 goals and there were 5.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 57%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.95 for Bolton Wanderers and 1.89 for Bristol City.
Bristol City made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.1 goals.
Bolton Wanderers created the better chances, 2.95 xG to 1.89, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
Bolton Wanderers had 6 shots on target, Bristol City 9.
Bolton Wanderers's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
Bolton Wanderers had 65% of the ball, but Bristol City took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Bolton Wanderers came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 1.44 expected goals for and 1.98 against, and had won 33% of their matches.
Bristol City came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 1.37 expected goals for and 1.58 against, and had won 33% of their matches.
Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City: the match in numbers
| Bolton Wanderers | Match statistics | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| 65% | Ball possession | 35% |
| 2.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 19 | Total shots | 14 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 0 | Big chances | 5 |
| 589 | Total passes | 323 |
| 84% | Pass accuracy | 73% |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Offsides | 5 |
| 11 | Tackles | 17 |
| 6 | Saves | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Scott Twine (Bristol City), rated 7.5 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Bolton Wanderers
- Josh Sheehan 7.4 1 goal
- Atsuki Ito 7.4 1 assist
- Sam Dalby 7.4 1 goal
- Jack Bonham 7.3
- Samuel Iling-Junior 7.2
Bristol City
- Scott Twine 7.5 1 goal
- Sam Bell 7.4 1 goal
- Jason Knight 7.4 1 assist
- Dom Ballard 7.4 1 goal
- Cameron Pring 7.1 1 assist
The lowest-rated starter was Max Conway at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Bolton Wanderers: Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
- Bristol City: Middlesbrough vs Bristol City Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City
What was the score in Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City?
Bolton Wanderers 2-3 Bristol City (half-time 1-1), Championship, Saturday 31 October 2026.
Who scored in Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City?
Dom Ballard 13', Josh Sheehan 16', Sam Dalby 57', Sam Bell 84', Scott Twine 90+3'.
Did Moneyball predict Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Bolton Wanderers win the likeliest outcome (38%), and a Bristol City win, at 35%, is what happened.
Who was man of the match in Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City?
Scott Twine, rated 7.5 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City?
R. Madley.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.