Barracas Central 2-1 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Liga Profesional Argentina Matchday 14 · Monday 26 October 2026 · Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia, Capital Federal · referee A. Merlos · full time
Full time: Barracas Central 2-1 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Barracas Central 2-1 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: Barracas Central took the points in Liga Profesional Argentina Matchday 14 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia. The goals: Ibrahim Hesar 44', Enzo Taborda 66', Rafael Barrios 74'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Barracas Central won it
Ibrahim Hesar put Estudiantes de Río Cuarto ahead in the 44th minute. Barracas Central levelled at 1-1 in the 66th minute through Enzo Taborda, set up by Tomás Porra. Barracas Central turned it round: Rafael Barrios made it 2-1 in the 74th minute, set up by Gastón Campi.
It was 0-1 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.
The lead changed hands once.
Gonzalo Maffini of Estudiantes de Río Cuarto was sent off in the 67th minute. The referee, A. Merlos, showed 1 yellow card: 0 to Barracas Central and 1 to Estudiantes de Río Cuarto.
Barracas Central: D. Ayude, 4-2-3-1 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: R. Forestello, 3-5-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Barracas Central win the most likely outcome at 55%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 2-0 rather than 2-1.
On goals the estimate was close: about 1.8 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 28%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 31%; both did, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-25, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.85 for Barracas Central and 1.44 for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto.
Barracas Central scored about 1.2 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Barracas Central to create more, and Estudiantes de Río Cuarto did.
Barracas Central had 12 shots on target, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's goalkeeper made 10 saves.
Barracas Central had 66% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Barracas Central came into it with 32 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 0.99 expected goals for and 1.00 against, and had won 38% of their matches.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto came into it with 32 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 0.84 expected goals for and 1.30 against, and had won 9% of their matches.
Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: the match in numbers
| Barracas Central | Match statistics | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| 66% | Ball possession | 34% |
| 0.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 21 | Total shots | 9 |
| 12 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 2 | Big chances | 1 |
| 535 | Total passes | 275 |
| 85% | Pass accuracy | 71% |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 11 |
| 15 | Tackles | 21 |
| 2 | Saves | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Lautaro Herrera (Estudiantes de Río Cuarto), rated 8.4 by Sportmonks.
Barracas Central
- Gastón Campi 7.8 1 assist
- Rafael Barrios 7.8 1 goal
- Iván Tapia 7.6
- Enzo Taborda 7.5 1 goal
- Tomás Porra 7.3 1 assist
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- Lautaro Herrera 8.4
- Gabriel Alanís 7.3
- Alejandro Cabrera 7.0
- Facundo Cobos 6.9
- Ibrahim Hesar 6.9 1 goal
The lowest-rated starter was Gonzalo Maffini at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Barracas Central: Defensa y Justicia vs Barracas Central Saturday 21 November 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
What was the score in Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto?
Barracas Central 2-1 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (half-time 0-1), Liga Profesional Argentina, Monday 26 October 2026.
Who scored in Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto?
Ibrahim Hesar 44', Enzo Taborda 66', Rafael Barrios 74'.
Did Moneyball predict Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto correctly?
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Barracas Central win the most likely outcome at 55%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 2-0 rather than 2-1.
Who was man of the match in Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto?
Lautaro Herrera, rated 8.4 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto?
A. Merlos.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.