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Baltika 0–1 Dynamo Makhachkala: Result, Report and Stats

This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.

Result: Baltika 0 – 1 Dynamo Makhachkala

Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.

Baltika welcome Dynamo Makhachkala to Kaliningrad Stadium in Kaliningrad in Premier League action on Monday 9 November 2026.

Baltika have played 14 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 8 matches, with a 50% win rate. Dynamo Makhachkala have played 14 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 8 matches, with a 60% win rate.

On the pre-match consensus, Baltika are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 28% and Dynamo Makhachkala at 18%.

Win probabilities

Baltika53%home win
Draw28%draw
Dynamo Makhachkala18%away win

The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2 goals: 51%.

Baltika: form and key numbers

In style Baltika are happy without the ball, press high, play long and direct.

Dynamo Makhachkala: form and key numbers

In style Dynamo Makhachkala are happy without the ball, play long and direct.

Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala: season averages side by side

BaltikaPer matchDynamo Makhachkala
1.47Expected goals (xG)1.25
0.83xG conceded1.50
1.21Goals1.21
13.1Shots10.9
4.4Shots on target3.5
0.8Big chances missed1.0
59.3Pressure share %40.9
17.5Tackles13.8
16.6Fouls11.9
2.0Yellow cards2.2

Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 14 and 14 measured matches.

Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala: head-to-head stats and key numbers

Head to head

In their last 3 meetings Baltika won 1, drew 1 and lost 1.

DateHomeScoreAway
8 Nov 2026Baltika0 – 1Dynamo Makhachkala
5 Apr 2026Dynamo Makhachkala2 – 2Baltika
5 Oct 2025Baltika2 – 0Dynamo Makhachkala

Players to watch

Baltika

Dynamo Makhachkala

Scouting spotlight: Brayan Gil

Brayan Gil, 25 · Baltika Kaliningrad · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 32

Brayan Gil, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Expected goals 37Goals, luck taken out 40Shots 4Shots on target 87Shot quality 96Aerial duels won 72Duels won 14Key passes 6Big chances missed 29

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

  • ST · Centre-forward Natural, 32
  • SS · Second striker Accomplished, 28

Where he is strongest

FigureHis numberBetter than
Shot quality (xG per shot)0.23 xG/shot96%
Shots on target55%87%
Aerial duels won3.99 / 9072%
Goals, luck taken out0.60 / 9040%
Expected goals0.60 / 9037%

Roles he suits

  • ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
  • ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
  • ★★ Target man Centre-forward

Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.

In Moneyball Scout
  • What Brayan Gil is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
  • How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
  • The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
  • His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Brayan Gil's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala prediction

Dynamo Makhachkala should have more of the ball; Baltika are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Dynamo Makhachkala go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.75 for Baltika and 0.87 for Dynamo Makhachkala - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 49%. Baltika have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.

Prediction: Baltika 2-1 Dynamo Makhachkala

Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala: what the numbers say

  1. 1. Baltika unbeaten (win or draw) 82% between them
  2. 2. 2 or more goals 2.62 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
  3. 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.2 cards a match between them
  4. 4. 9 or more corners 8.6 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

Moneyball's reading

The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.

Follow Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala live

Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala: questions and answers

When is Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala?

Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala is on Monday 9 November 2026, in the Premier League.

Where is Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala played?

At Kaliningrad Stadium, Kaliningrad, Baltika's home ground.

Who will win Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala?

Baltika are the favourites: Baltika 53%, draw 28%, Dynamo Makhachkala 18%. Our prediction is Baltika 2-1 Dynamo Makhachkala.

Who is the player to watch in Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala?

Brayan Gil of Baltika Kaliningrad: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 32 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala?

Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.

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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.