Atlanta United 3-1 Toronto: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Atlanta United won it

The opening goal came in the 22nd minute: Miguel Almirón for Atlanta United, set up by Aleksey Miranchuk. Cooper Sanchez made it 2-0 to Atlanta United in the 40th minute, set up by Miguel Almirón. Aleksey Miranchuk made it 3-0 to Atlanta United in the 51st minute. Lewis Morgan made it 3-1 to Toronto in the 79th minute, set up by Josh Sargent.

It was 2-0 at half-time.

The referee, F. Dujic, showed 2 yellow cards: 0 to Atlanta United and 2 to Toronto. Josh Sargent missed a penalty for Toronto in the 90 minute.

Atlanta United: G. Martino, 4-3-3 · Toronto: R. Fraser, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Atlanta United -0.25, was right: 3-1 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was an Atlanta United win at 47%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.1 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 60%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 63%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had an Atlanta United win at 40%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-01, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.54 for Atlanta United and 2.49 for Toronto.

Atlanta United scored about 1.5 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Toronto left about 1.5 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Toronto created the better chances, 2.49 xG to 1.54, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Atlanta United to create more, and Toronto did.

Atlanta United had 8 shots on target, Toronto 3.

Toronto's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Toronto had 52% of the ball, but Atlanta United took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Atlanta United came into it with 34 MLS matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.49 expected goals for and 1.41 against, and had won 26% of their matches.

Atlanta United vs Toronto: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United), rated 8.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Atlanta United

• Miguel Almirón 8.6 1 goal, 1 assist
• Aleksey Miranchuk 8.5 1 goal, 1 assist
• Cooper Sanchez 7.5 1 goal
• Breel Embolo 7.4
• Elías Báez 7.2

Toronto

• Lewis Morgan 7.7 1 goal
• Theo Corbeanu 7.2
• Luka Gavran 7.1
• Alonso Coello 7.0
• Derrick Etienne Jr. 6.8

The lowest-rated starter was Dániel Sallói at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

Questions about Atlanta United vs Toronto

What was the score in Atlanta United vs Toronto?

Atlanta United 3-1 Toronto (half-time 2-0), MLS, Sunday 1 November 2026.

Who scored in Atlanta United vs Toronto?

Miguel Almirón 22', Cooper Sanchez 40', Aleksey Miranchuk 51', Lewis Morgan 79'.

Did Moneyball predict Atlanta United vs Toronto correctly?

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Atlanta United -0.25, was right: 3-1 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in Atlanta United vs Toronto?

Miguel Almirón, rated 8.6 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Atlanta United vs Toronto?

F. Dujic.