Arouca 1-0 Nacional: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Liga Portugal Matchday 10 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca · referee L. Branco Godinho · full time
Full time: Arouca 1-0 Nacional
Arouca 1-0 Nacional: Arouca took the points in Liga Portugal Matchday 10 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had this exact score as the most likely.
How Arouca won it
The opening goal came in the 64th minute: an own goal by Matheus Dias for Arouca.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, L. Branco Godinho, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Arouca and 2 to Nacional.
Arouca: Vítor José Santos Severino, 4-2-3-1 · Nacional: J. Oliveira Nunes Henriques, 4-3-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Arouca Win, and 1-0 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was an Arouca win at 56%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-0 (12%), exactly the final score.
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.6 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 48%; with 1 goal the under came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 49%; they did not both score, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had an Arouca win at 52%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-01, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.31 for Arouca and 1.05 for Nacional.
Nacional left about 1.1 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Arouca to create more, and Nacional did.
Arouca had 5 shots on target, Nacional 1.
Arouca had 62% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Arouca came into it with 11 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.7 a match, with 1.04 expected goals for and 1.18 against, and had won 55% of their matches.
Nacional came into it with 11 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.07 expected goals for and 1.59 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Arouca vs Nacional: the match in numbers
| Arouca | Match statistics | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| 62% | Ball possession | 38% |
| 0.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.05 |
| 13 | Total shots | 5 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 553 | Total passes | 338 |
| 88% | Pass accuracy | 80% |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 9 | Tackles | 14 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: José Fontán (Arouca), rated 7.4 by Sportmonks.
Arouca
- José Fontán 7.4
- Orest Lebedenko 7.3
- Javi Sánchez 7.3
- Naïs Djouahra 7.3
- Mateo Flores 7.2
Nacional
- Renato Marin 7.2
- Ze Vitor 7.1
- Miguel Baeza 7.0
- Abdel Kader Njoya 6.6
- William Kokolo 6.6
The lowest-rated starter was Stavros Gavriel at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
Questions about Arouca vs Nacional
What was the score in Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca 1-0 Nacional (half-time 0-0), Liga Portugal, Sunday 1 November 2026.
Who scored in Arouca vs Nacional?
Sportmonks did not list the scorers.
Did Moneyball predict Arouca vs Nacional correctly?
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Arouca Win, and 1-0 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Arouca vs Nacional?
José Fontán, rated 7.4 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Arouca vs Nacional?
L. Branco Godinho.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.