Alverca 1-1 Casa Pia: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Liga Portugal Matchday 11 · Saturday 7 November 2026 · Complexo Desportivo do FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo · referee S. dos Santos Guelho · full time
Full time: Alverca 1-1 Casa Pia
Alverca and Casa Pia drew 1-1 in Liga Portugal Matchday 11 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Complexo Desportivo do FC Alverca. The goals: Selvi Clua 36', Ian Luccas 66'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How the match unfolded
Casa Pia struck first through Selvi Clua in the 36th minute, set up by Henrique Araújo. Alverca levelled at 1-1 in the 66th minute through Ian Luccas, set up by Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira.
It was 0-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, S. dos Santos Guelho, showed 4 yellow cards: 3 to Alverca and 1 to Casa Pia.
Alverca: Sérgio Ferreira, 3-4-3 · Casa Pia: F. Curto Coelho, 4-3-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Alverca -0.50, and on 1-1 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was an Alverca win at 49%; a draw, at 28%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (13%), exactly the final score.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.4 expected, 2 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 44%; with 2 goals the under came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 48%; both did, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.15 for Alverca and 1.13 for Casa Pia.
Alverca had 5 shots on target, Casa Pia 4.
Alverca had 56% of the ball.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Alverca came into it with 11 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.18 expected goals for and 1.48 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Casa Pia came into it with 11 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 0.90 expected goals for and 1.71 against, and had won 18% of their matches.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: the match in numbers
| Alverca | Match statistics | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| 56% | Ball possession | 44% |
| 1.15 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.13 |
| 15 | Total shots | 11 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 2 | Big chances | 2 |
| 417 | Total passes | 350 |
| 78% | Pass accuracy | 73% |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 15 | Tackles | 23 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Ian Luccas (Alverca), rated 7.5 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Alverca
- Ian Luccas 7.5 1 goal
- Sergi Gómez Solà 7.1
- Dawda Camara 7.0
- Matheus Mendes 6.9
- Diogo Spencer 6.9
Casa Pia
- David Sousa 7.5
- Henrique Araújo 7.3 1 assist
- Kaly 7.2
- Seba Pérez 7.2
- Patrick Sequeira 7.1
The lowest-rated starter was Jérémy Livolant at 6.4. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
Questions about Alverca vs Casa Pia
What was the score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca 1-1 Casa Pia (half-time 0-1), Liga Portugal, Saturday 7 November 2026.
Who scored in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Selvi Clua 36', Ian Luccas 66'.
Did Moneyball predict Alverca vs Casa Pia correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Alverca -0.50, and on 1-1 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Ian Luccas, rated 7.5 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Alverca vs Casa Pia?
S. dos Santos Guelho.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.