AEK Athens 2-3 Real Madrid: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Real Madrid won it

Aboubakary Koita put AEK Athens ahead in the 12th minute, set up by Luka Jović. Real Madrid levelled at 1-1 in the 32nd minute through Jude Bellingham, set up by Marc Cucurella. Stavros Pilios made it 2-1 to AEK Athens in the 75th minute, set up by Aboubakary Koita. Real Madrid levelled at 2-2 in the 78th minute through Kylian Mbappé, set up by Denzel Dumfries. Real Madrid turned it round: Federico Valverde made it 2-3 in the 90th minute (+2), set up by Brahim Díaz. There was no time to answer it.

It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The lead changed hands once.

Aboubakary Koita of AEK Athens was sent off in the 90th minute (+5). The referee, M. Mariani, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to AEK Athens and 1 to Real Madrid.

AEK Athens: M. Nikolić, 4-4-2 · Real Madrid: José Mourinho, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Over 3.50, and 2-3 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was a Real Madrid win at 71%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-2 (9%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.7 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 70%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 60%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Real Madrid win at 73%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-03, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

AEK Athens had 5 shots on target, Real Madrid 8.

AEK Athens's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Real Madrid had 69% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

AEK Athens came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.8 a match, with 1.43 expected goals for and – against, and had won 25% of their matches.

Real Madrid came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 3.11 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.

AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

AEK Athens

• Aboubakary Koita 7.4 1 goal, 1 assist
• Alberto Brignoli 7.4
• Luka Jović 7.2 1 assist
• Lovro Majer 7.1
• Zini 7.1

Real Madrid

• Jude Bellingham 8.2 1 goal
• Kylian Mbappé 8.2 1 goal
• Federico Valverde 7.6 1 goal
• Éder Militão 7.5
• Marc Cucurella 7.5 1 assist

The lowest-rated starter was Kaan Kairinen at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• AEK Athens: Como vs AEK Athens Tuesday 24 November 2026 · Champions League
• Real Madrid: Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about AEK Athens vs Real Madrid

What was the score in AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?

AEK Athens 2-3 Real Madrid (half-time 1-1), Champions League, Wednesday 4 November 2026.

Who scored in AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?

Aboubakary Koita 12', Jude Bellingham 32', Stavros Pilios 75', Kylian Mbappé 78', Federico Valverde 90+2'.

Did Moneyball predict AEK Athens vs Real Madrid correctly?

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Over 3.50, and 2-3 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?

Jude Bellingham, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?

M. Mariani.